WNBL Semi-finals preview: Flames v Fire

Not for the first, second or third time in her career, the influence of Suzy Batkovic looms large over this semi-final series. The Townsville centre remains the WNBL’s leading inside presence and her ability to pick up cheap points, though Sydney have a capable big defender in Jen Hamson, one of the few players to have a height advantage over Batkovic. Still, the Flames will look to help on Batkovic as much as possible, with bench bigs Carly Boag and Shanae Graeves likely to be used in short spells to play physical defence and crash the offensive boards.

Teams have found it difficult not to give away fouls on Batkovic and Sydney will particularly want to keep the explosive Asia Taylor in the game as long as possible. Double teams on Batkovic will open up outside shots for Mia Murray (36% for the season) and Micaela Cocks (37%), who looms as something of an X-factor in the series, having exploded in last year’s finals series where she upped her productivity and was MVP. Expect Sydney to go under screens against point guard Natasha Cloud, and live with her shooting the three where she is only hitting on 21% from distance this season.

A huge reason why Sydney should be favoured in this matchup is their versatility; they can push Belinda Snell to small forward and may look to run Townsville around with three guard lineups including Tahlia Tupaea, whose form since returning from injury demands playing time. Leilani Mitchell is the clear #1 point guard in the league and has rounded into form at the right time of year, giving Sydney the edge in the backcourt.

Another intriguing player in the Sydney rotation is Sarah Graham. She hasn’t been required in some recent matches, but her long-range shooting (an eye-popping, league-leading 56% for the season) provides immensely valuable floor spacing and could net points in bunches if the Flames offence goes into a lull.

The defending champion Fire will not give up their title lightly and are a well-balanced squad, ranking third in both offence and defence. Overall, however, Sydney look to have too much depth and versatility over the course of the series. Further good news for Sydney is their irresistible form (8 wins in a rows) and they fact they were able to give their stars some rest as they coasted to a win over Adelaide in the last round.

Prediction: Sydney 2-1.

13 Things We Loved in the WNBL This Year

BATGIRL RETURNS

Two constants in the WNBL in recent years have been the ongoing success of the Townsville Fire and the machine-like production of Suzy Batkovic. One of only two players to score 20 points a game (21.3) and one of only a pair of players who averaged more than 10 rebounds (10.6), she was again utterly dominant in the paint, continuing to use her imposing size and unorthodox leftie game to devastating effect.

THE RIM PROTECTION OF MARIANNA TOLO

Of the league’s three elite shot blockers (With Jennifer Hamson and Ruth Hamblin), Tolo is the most mobile and an instinctive defender. Her return to the Capitals, along with her undiminished ability to swat shots and change countless others was a key reason last year’s last-placed Canberra squad improved by eleven wins and hovered on the edge of the finals this year.


One of 58 blocks Marianna Tolo collected.One of 58 blocks Marianna Tolo collected.

One of 58 blocks Marianna Tolo collected.

THE RISE (AND RISE) OF CARLEY MIJOVIC

Increased minutes don’t always lead to increased production, but Perth’s Carley Mijovic relished the chance to become the Lynx’s second scoring option behind Whitcomb and her stats climbed in almost every category. Agile, tall enough to play the five and a good enough shooter to be a floor-stretching matchup nightmare, Mijovic was Perth’s most improved player in the 2015/16 and if anything only hastened her improvement this season. She recorded 3 times as many blocks as last year, along with more than doubling her rebounds (7.5) and assists (1.29) per game and rocketed up the points per game chart, from 28th to 13th in the league.

THE FANTASTIC STEPH CUMMING

God damn, what a basketball player. While some pros carve out perfectly respectable careers by being excellent at one thing, Cumming’s particular niche is being good at everything: outside shooting, persistent perimeter defence, dishing out assists, scoring efficiently with her back to the basket, getting to the foul line. She passed 250 WNBL games this year and has never been better, nor played with such controlled fire.  “No-one ever wants to lose” she told a reporter recently, eyes grim with intensity. “You’re a liar if you say you like losing”.

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Steph Cumming: Not losingSteph Cumming: Not losing

Steph Cumming: Not losing

 

SAMI WHITCOMB, TORMENTOR OF DEFENCES

Initially arriving in the WNBL via the Western Australian Basketball League with little fanfare, the California-born Sami Whitcomb is now the league’s MVP frontrunner. Her late-blooming game includes superior ball-handling, herky-jerky drives to the basket and pure shooting from well beyond the three-point arc. It’s a multi-faceted puzzle nobody around the league has managed to solve on a consistent basis and her continued dominance has led to a well-deserved call-up to the WNBA. As Perth coach Andy Stewart recently told local press, it’s not a question of whether she is up to the sports premier competition, “My question would be – can she dominate it?”

 

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Sami Whitcomb shoots over a double team.Sami Whitcomb shoots over a double team.

Sami Whitcomb shoots over a double team.

THE MASCOTS


Look at them go!

CARLY WILSON GOES OUT A WINNER

A great outside shooter and scorer who also collected blocked shots at a rate normally reserved for towering centres, Wilson was an Opals mainstay in the early 2000s. She retired from the league this week with 363 WNBL career games, 1016 3-pointers, 3 WNBL championships, 2 all-star five selections, countless pairs of her trademark pink socks and a level of respect amongst fellow players and fans that would be impossible to quantify. The good news for the league is that she wants to stay involved in some capacity; a commentary gig in a new TV deal would be a win for all involved.

LEILANI MITCHELL, FLOOR GENERAL SUPREME

Leilani Mitchell is one of the smallest players in the WNBL, and also one of the best. Overcoming some uncharacteristic struggles with finishing earlier in the season, she was dynamic in the Flames’ 8-game winning streak, particularly down the stretch of close games where her calmness running the point, uncanny ability to get to the rim and redoubtable pull-up jumper were invaluable and loom as major assets come Finals time.

MADDIE GARRICK, FUTURE OPALS STAR

Melbourne’s unwanted penchant for losing close games condemned them to an early exit from the playoff race, but the continued growth of Maddie Garrick was a bright spot. With a tight handle and an arsenal of feints, fakes, jab steps and hesitations polished enough to get separation from even the most dogged of defenders, she seems headed for Opals selection.

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DOING IT FOR THE KIDS

Broadcasters continued to shun the league, but that didn’t stop the younger generation turning out in force. 

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Kelly Wilson with some young fans.Kelly Wilson with some young fans.

Kelly Wilson with some young fans.

 

KICKING IT OLD SCHOOL

NBA fans have bemoaned the decreased importance of post-up players as D’Antoni ball has taken over the league, all but wiping out the old style of bigs with low-post repetoires. Pace and space basketball is spectacular and efficient, but there is still a place for the old skills and in the WNBL, the back to the basket game is alive and well with players like Suzy Batkovic and Bendigo’s Nayo Raincock-Ekunwe being post-up juggernauts.

SARA BLICAVS, BIG TIME SMALL FORWARD

Whether flying around screens, acting as an ambassador for charities or churning out comedy gold on Twitter, Sara Blicavs was a star in season 2016/17. A genuine two-way force and one of only two players to average at least 16 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal (the other was Asia Taylor), her athletic ability and well-rounded game were a major reason why Dandenong secured a home semi-final in a congested ladder. 

THE ATHLETICISM OF ASIA TAYLOR

Experienced WNBL journalists were projecting Sydney to miss the finals; the eye-catching play of the Louisville alum was one major reason they exceeded expectations. She was a difficult cover for any type of defender: too physically strong for fleet-footed wings and possessing a first step too quick for lumbering bigs. Explosive enough to swipe rebounds and run the floor, her top 10 scoring and rebounding numbers saw her named in the team of the week 8 times, equaling Suzy Batkovic and behind only Sami Whitcomb (13). 

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Asia Taylor goes coast to coast.Asia Taylor goes coast to coast.

Asia Taylor goes coast to coast.

WNBL MVP race: can Suzy Batkovic win her fifth?

It’s been another tightly contested WNBL season with some of the competition’s legends joined by exciting new names. As the league rounds into its second half, we take a closer look at some of its standout players.

Sami Whitcomb (Perth Lynx)

The WNBL’s leading scorer with an even 24 a game, the Perth shooting guard has been both a revelation as both an inside and outside threat. Possessing an explosive first step and a range of jab steps and crossovers to get separation, Whitcomb has been deadly from three-point range (41%). She is also a strong enough facilitator to frustrate double teams, with 4.1 assists per game and a disruptive defender, with 37 steals, good for first in the league. In a tightly-contested competition, her plus/minus stats of +69 for the season are impressive, and include a crazy +44 in just 25 minutes against Adelaide. Whitcomb’s 33 points first half masterclass against a quality team in Bendigo must have sent shivers through the league and is the kind of scheme-wrecking dominance which makes her the MVP frontrunner.

Susy Batkovic (Townsville Fire)

Batkovic already has four WNBL MVPs to her name and a record-breaking fifth wouldn’t surprise, given a monster season which has seen her rank second in both points (21.4) and rebounds (10.4) per game. Her size, touch around the rim and sheer canniness as a low-post player remain undiminished and she gets to the foul line more than any other player in the competition. Controversially left out of the Opals Olympic team, Batkovic has proceeded to bend opposing defences to her will, recording a whopping 9 double doubles and has also made some huge clutch plays, not least an off-balance reverse layup to force overtime against Sydney Uni Flames in a match the Fire eventually won.

Marianna Tolo (University of Canberra Capitals)

A hydralike rim protector (her 33 blocks ranks 3rd in the competition) and supremely reliable inside scorer, Tolo is having another strong year with her combination of length, instincts and mobility making her one of the competition’s elite bigs. Her 38 point, 12 rebound performance against the tall timber of Sydney’s frontcourt was one of the most dominant single games of the season.

Laura Hodges (Adelaide Lightning)

Usually players on winless teams don’t figure in MVP discussion, but Hodges’ work on the battling Adelaide lightning makes her an exception to the rule. The four-time Olympian has used her quickness and finishing nous to again put up strong numbers as a scorer (18.50, 4th in the WNBL) and rebounder (7.90, 8th in the league) despite a glaring lack of support.

Nayo Raincock-Ekunwe (Bendigo Spirit)

The athletic Canadian has made an immediate impact in her first season, with her polished offensive game netting 16.27 points a game (7th in league). She has been a particular menace on the offensive glass (53, 2nd in league), a major reason why Bendigo have won the battle of second chance points in 12 of 15 games. Raincock-Ekunwe has also been a model of efficiency as an inside scorer, with her 58% shooting percentage tied with Marianna Tolo for the best in the competition.

Asia Taylor (Sydney Uni Flames)

Another first year WNBL import who has made a smooth transition to the league. In the games Taylor missed through a concussion, the Flames went 1-2, as opposed to the 9-3 record they have with her on the floor. Taylor is crashing the boards (8.67 per game) and dishing out assists at a rate rarely seen by a frontcourt player. Having failed to score double figures only once, she figures to be one of the most influential players in the race for the finals.

Steph Cumming (Dandenong Rangers)

The reigning defensive player of the year has quietly become one of the most productive on the offensive end, with her 17.53 per game ranking 6th overall. Against Perth, her 31 point, 12 rebound and 4 assist tally included five three-pointers. Cumming’s outside shooting (46%) rates among the league’s best and her strong two-way game has been a major factor in Dandenong heading into the new year first on the ladder.

Honourable mentions: Kelsey Griffin (Bendigo Spirit), Mikaela Ruef (University of Canberra Capitals), Leilani Mitchell (Sydney Uni Flames), Jen Hamson (Sydney Uni Flames).

NBA thoughts on the run – Pacific

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Golden State Warriors

Last year, they claimed the NBA’s record for most wins in a regular season (73). This year, with the benefit of hindsight, they probably won’t expend so much energy chasing that record, leaving themselves fresher for a tilt at the Finals. They’ve also replaced a useful player with a transcendent one. Throw in the fact they bottled a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals to give them some extra hunger, and you have perhaps the most talented group of players in the history of the league with a rare level of motivation. Replacing Andrew Bogut with Zaza Pachulia has been a major downgrade in their rim protection, which hurt them in a heavy first up loss to the Spurs who feasted on their interior defence. Depsite looking like they’re still a fair way from fully realising their awesome potential, they’re already leading the league in points and steals and look positively scary for the rest of the league. Last year: 73-9, So far: 7-2

 

Los Angeles Clippers

They’ve been good – really good and already forcing us to reconsider whether what looked like roster inertia was actually an admirable move to build continuity into the side. The combination of Paul/Griffin/Jordan/Reddick and any other human basketball player is torching opponents and their defence has been the best in the league, even managing to slow down the multi-faceted scoring of Kawhi Leonard in a big win over the Spurs. With their bench looking the best it has in a long, long time, they look early favourites to meet you know who in the Western Conference finals. Last year: 53-29, So far: 8-1

Los Angeles Lakers

They have youth on their side: the giraffe-like Brandon Ingram is an exciting prospect, albeit a long-term one and D’Angelo Russell will continue his upwards trajectory. New coach Luke Walton brings calmness and the know-how of having (albeit briefly) coached a record-smashing Golden State side. Pre-season prognostications were that their improvement was unlikely to be major; big money signing Timofey Mozgov looked a head-scratching acquisition and major questions remain over their defence, depth and playmaking. But they’ve already secured an unlikely win over the Warriors and the progress of Julius Randle has been promising; his defence is still a minus but his passing game has been an unexpected bonus. Speaking of defence, Nick Young plays it now, a testament to Walton’s motivational powers. They’re unlikely to stay above .500, but their early improvement is very welcome found money.

Last year: 17-65, So far: 5-4

Phoenix Suns

Last year, significant injuries (their three highest paid players in Bledsoe, Chandler and Knight missed a combined 97 games) turned them from a team anticipated to hover around .500 into a basketball disaster. The stellar scoring of rookie Devin Booker provided some glimpses of hope in an offence which ranked an abysmal 28th. They’ve added a pair of hugely promising but still raw rookie stretch fours – Marqueese Chriss and Dragan Bender, both of who boast have a versatility and size which fit in perfectly to the NBA’s new small ball revolution. Both are only up to developmental minutes at this stage though and their lack of plus defenders (only Bledsoe is outstanding), three-point shooting (they rank 28th in the league) and penchant for turnovers are ongoing problems. Their rebounding numbers (led by Tyson Chandler and Alex Len) have been a real strength and are good for 2nd in the league, but the playoffs are already looking a distant goal for this season at least.

Last year: 23-59, So far: 3-6

Sacramento Kings

Perhaps unsurprisingly, having an attack that ranks 25th and a defence that places 20th is not a surefire recipe for success in a 30 team league. Yet that is the predicament facing the Kings, who also manage to be the second worst rebounding team despite the presence of low post monster Boogie Cousins. Throw in their high foul numbers and there is little to like for Sacramento, though where there is Boogie, there is (some) hope, and he still ranks high in the advanced metrics

Last year: 33-49, So far: 4-6

NBA thoughts on the run -Northwest

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Denver Nuggets

They’ve already had some close losses that they may well rue at season’s end, especially if they hover around .500, as appears likely. Still, they’re an intriguing and improving outfit and Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic are beastly big man prospects who are already excellent plus/minus contributors. Jamal Murray has already a scorer’s instincts, but there is still plenty of refinement to come, not least to his flailing defence. Last year: 33-49  So far: 3-4

Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected to make a major leap this year around the ridiculously precocious talents of Karl Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins and the hard-nosed defence of Tom Thibodeau, the Wolves have so far frustrated. Neither Towns nor Wiggins have reached their potential as stoppers and Dieng, recently extended for four years by Minnesota, has not looked like a good fit alongside Towns. Ricky Rubio’s injury has gifted big minutes to Kriss Dunn, who has been as blindingly fast and explosively athletic as advertised, though he has struggled with his shot so far. They figure to improve considerably, but they need wins soon to stay in touch. Last year: 29-53 So far: 2-5

Oklahoma City Thunder

In the wake of Kevin Durant’s (still kind of surprising) departure, Russell Westbrook’s one-man wrecking crew has been even more fun and compulsively watchable than expected, but it seems hugely unlikely he, or the team he is precariously balancing on his shoulders, can keep up this pace. With an eye-popping 42.4% usage rate and a scoring average of 31.1, his work has been spectacular, though almost certainly unsustainable. Stephen Adams has brought neat spin moves and toughness, but recent acquisition Victor Oladipo is still a work in progress as a two-way star. Last year: 55-27 So far: 6-2

Portland Trailblazers

Damian Lillard looms as a sneaky MVP candidate, but outside his laudable production (30.0 ppg and 1.4 offensive win shares, good for second in the league behind James Harden) it is unclear if the retooled squad has improved on last year’s unanticipated playoffs showing. They lack a high-level big man and rank a lowly 25th in rebounding, but the octane-fuelled backcourt of Lillard and McCollum should be good for another playoff run. Last year: 44-38 So far: 5-4

Utah Jazz

Despite missing Gordon Hayward at the start of the year, the Jazz are firmly in the race for a top 4 seed in the West. With canny veteran pickup Joe Johnson holding the fort, they’re near the top of the league in rim protection, three point percentage, defensive rebounding and points scored, suggesting a balanced and enviably deep squad. George Hill has been a productive addition and Rodney Hood continues his upwards ascent. The return of Dante Exum has given them another tenacious perimeter defender, though his ball-handling remains a drawback. Last year: 40-42 So far: 5-4